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 Baseball statistician Bill James has become well known for his contributions with the Boston Red Sox and their two World Series rings in the last four years. James was hired as a special advisor with Boston in 2002. His specialty? Sabermetrics, a word he defines as “the search for objective knowledge about baseball.†Therefore, sabermatricians explore objective questions such as “Which Red Sox player contributed most to the team’s offense?†or “How many home runs will David Ortiz hit next year?â€
While this sort of in-depth statistical analysis makes sense for a slow-paced game such as baseball, a faster-paced game like basketball would be much more difficult to keep up with. Not only that, but baseball keeps track of situational statistics, such as a player’s batting average with runners in scoring position, batting average with two outs, or batting average after an 0-2 count. If you dig a little deeper, you will discover statistics such as Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). This stat reveals how much a player contributes to his team in comparison to a fictitious “replacement playerâ€. In-depth statistics such as VORP aren’t as commonly known in the game of basketball. Fans may know game stats of their favorite player, such as how many points or rebounds he averages per game, or how well he shoots from the foul line. But nobody is keeping track of how much Kobe Bryant contributes to his team in comparison to a “replacement playerâ€. Or so we thought. Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt, authors of the book “Freakonomicsâ€, recently uncovered the Boston Celtics’ secret weapon to success this season in The True Value of Rajon Rondo, as reported by the New York Times. The secret weapon’s name is Mike Zarren, a 32-year-old who appears to know every statistical point of every NBA player. 2008 is Zarren’s third season on Boston’s payroll, and also holds the title of team associate counsel. He assists the team by evaluating potential trades and draft picks, and offers strategic advice to Coach Doc Rivers. While both Rivers and Celtics General Manager Danny Ainge are often skeptical of Zarren’s input, Ainge says it’s “more information on every decision we make.†So what does Zarren know that we don’t? While he refuses to share all of his knowledge, he did divulge answers to a few specific questions: What’s the most efficient shot to take besides a lay-up? Easy, says Zarren: a three-pointer from the corner. What’s one of the most misused, misinterpreted statistics? “Turnovers are way more expensive that people think,†Zarren says. That’s because most teams focus on the points a defense scores from the turnover but don’t correctly value the offense’s opportunity cost – that is, the points it might have scored had the turnover not occurred.
Zarren added that he believes Ray Allen’s value to the team and Rajon Rondo’s worth as a rebounder are both underrated. He also stated that Kevin Garnett has become even more valuable than the team had anticipated. Zarren is also responsible for the Celtics’ basketball-related technology and uses a service that delivers video footage tagged with statistical information. With just a few mouse clicks, he can call up every clip in which LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers has touched the ball at the top of the key and see whether he went left or right, was double-teamed or not, passed or shot – and, if the latter, whether he missed, scored or was fouled.
The practice of behind-the-scenes in-depth statistical analysis, however, is not limited to the Boston Celtics. Sam Hinkie, the Houston Rockets’ vice president of basketball operations, contributes to his team in a way very similar to Zarren. (Read NBA number-crunch: How Oklahoman uses stats not found in the box score) Player points per minute, team points per possession, rebound percentage. These are examples of stats that Hinkie uses to analyze a potential trade or draft choice. Another one of Hinkie’s examples determines if Stephen Jackson’s 20.1 points per game are more impressive than Tim Duncan’s 19.3. When you consider the up-tempo offense that Jackson plays in compared to Duncan’s Spurs, who see fewer possessions per game, the answer becomes much clearer. A quick search of 82games.com shows that Zarren and Hinkie aren’t the only ones taking part in NBA statistical analysis. Here are just a few of the stats available at 82games.com: Floor-time stats (individual player plus/minus; how a team fares with a certain player on the floor), 5-man unit stats (most-used five-man combos and how they fare together), player pairs (stats looking at team performance with each two-man pair on the court) and many, many more that frankly are too difficult to explain. Despite the growing use of statistical analysis in basketball, both Ainge and Hinkie acknowledged the fact that other variables are considered when making personnel or strategic decisions. “What we try to do is draw a clearer picture,†Hinkie said. The data “trend will continue to be a part of our business, along with the judgment of experienced basketball evaluators and the unique chemistry building that coaches can create. This is yet another piece.â€
The NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB are all copycat leagues. Expect the use of statistical analysis to continue to spread throughout all of professional sports in the coming years, especially if Mike Zarren leads the Boston Celtics to the NBA Finals this season.
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