With little movement on a new arena -- or at this point, renovations to KeyArena -- the odds that Oklahoma City businessman, and Sonics owner Clay Bennett will be moving the team out of Seattle and into Oklahoma City are very high. It seems more a "when" not "if" as the city of Seattle works to force Bennett and his partners to honor the lease agreement, which expires in 2010.

At the All-Star Game festivities yesterday in New Orileans, NBA commissioner David Stern said the following regarding the situation with the Sonics:

Q. Are you more or less equally pessimistic about the situation in Seattle than you were this time last year? And is the Union comfortable with discussing relocation next month given the state of the lawsuit in June?

COMMISSIONER STERN: You know, it's interesting to me, it's apparent to all who are watching that the Sonics are heading out of Seattle. There's not going to be a new arena. There's not going to be a public contribution, and that's everyone's right. I mean that sincerely. So the only question now becomes, is the court going to rule that you can fulfill the terms of the lease by paying money for the remaining two years after this? Or, despite everything, there is some reason to keep them there as the clock winds down.

To try to compromise the issue I have urged and supported the Sonics to make an offer to Seattle that would both pay the remaining two years of the lease after this, and an offer to pay the remaining bond outstanding indebtedness, that will remain even after the team leaves were it to still stay there for two more years after this, which approaches $30 million. All I can tell you is that in response to that request by me, the offer was made, and it was rejected. I think it's bad public policy.

I feel actually badly that the team, when it leaves either now or in two years, is going to leave behind an unpaid debt which the city has. The team's not going to leave it behind, but the city's still going to have a debt on the building. And the Sonics have offered to pay it off. The city says no, and so we'll see. But I don't feel uncomfortable. We know how to observe court orders and we do a pretty good job of that. So if the court says they're not free to just pay and leave, then they won't just pay and leave. But if they are, then they'll be gone and there will be two years of payment, and the city will not have the benefit of the $30 million or so and other things that would be worked on if there were an amicable solution to that.

Q. You seem convinced that they're going to leave?

COMMISSIONER STERN: I see nothing ‑‑ I don't know why anyone would expect in the absence of what they've been saying all along, which is funding for a new building of some kind and a plan for it that they would be staying. I accept that inevitability at this point. There is no miracle here.

As is often the case, asking for a new arena, at taxpayer expense, is at issue. Whether that is in Seattle or Oklahoma City, ownership will leverage a new arena out of the deal. A relocation committee has been working on the deal with the Sonics.

Micky Arison, managing general partner of the Miami Heat, is chairman of the NBA Board of Governors. He is overseeing a relocation committee consisting of Jerry Buss (Los Angeles Lakers), Chris Cohan (Golden State Warriors), Lewis Katz (New Jersey Nets), Herb Simon (Indiana Pacers), Ed Snider (Philadelphia 76ers) and Peter Holt (San Antonio Spurs).

Three franchises have already been relocated in the past decade with varying degrees of success. Here is a listing of all franchises that have relocated over the last 30 years:

Source: National Basketball Association